Expo wiki accuracy

  • http://wiki.ogame.org/index.php/Guide:Expedition_guide

    I would like to know if ANY of the information in that wiki is accurate anymore. There seems to be some pretty big discrepancies and it has major holes in it now that v7 is out. Is there any other source of information for this info? Stuff like expo points, structural integrity, how it is applied in faster speed eco unis, etc?

    Brute force, if it's not working, you aren't using enough.

  • Yep... a bit outdated yes. Namely the Expedition points and the amount of resources/ships/Dark Matter you can get.

    And about the percentages of what you can find...
    I did about 3000 Expeditions which is more than enough to get a an accurate result:

    -> 9% is Dark Matter. I got 6,86%. That's a considerable difference. Real number is probably between 6% to 7%.
    -> 22% of Ships. Nope... I got about 16,70%, so the REAL odds are between 16% to 17%. That's 6% off so this one is clearly outdated.
    -> 32,5% are resources? Probably reduced a bit, I got 15,50% on Metal + 10,12% on Crystal + 5,35% on Deuterium which equals 30,97%, less than 2% off, so maybe it's the same? But since the above 2 were messed with, I'd guess the real one here is 30%.
    -> 5,8% are Pirates. Probably still the same or just rounded to 6%. I got 6,21%.
    -> 2,6% are Aliens. Again, same with pirates, but I would probably guess that it's half the chance of getting pirates so 3%. I got 2,98%.
    -> 7% is fleet delay. This one is probably correct still. I got 6,48%.
    -> 2% is the fleet returning early. Yep, same as above. I got 1,99% here.
    -> 18,6% is nothing. Well, here is where it was DEFINITELY messed up. I got 27,02% here... That's almost 10% difference. So I probably guess that since the amount of resources and DM you can gain now on Expos is significantly higher thanks to the Discoverer class, the Devs downgraded the number of times you can get resources, so that it's not even more OP than it is now, and of course those percentages had to get somehwere, and it was probably here. Real number is probably between 26-28%.
    -> 0,33% is Blackhole(Loss of fleet). This one was already so unlikely that it probably still stands true. I got 0,21% here.
    -> 0,7% you find a Merchant. Same as above, I got 0,58%.

    About the factors of multiplication of resource finds, as well as their chance, is probably also correct.

    TL:DR

    Dark Matter, Resources and Ships(basically, all the expeditions where you get profit) were brought down in %s and Nothing was raised up in return. All the others are probably the same.

    Moons donated: 10

  • Grimm your data is what led me to look deeper. An alliance mate of mine found 18 mil crystal in a 5x uni with top between 5 and 25 mil, and the max is only supposed to be 14 or so.

    You have already proven that you dont need to apply an eco speed formula to the expo points required to get the maximum rewards, right? You've done 1000s now.

    So I have questions, but I do understand this is all a work in progress. Have you noticed any changes in the resource reward percentages? I assume you still track every expo.

    Brute force, if it's not working, you aren't using enough.

  • So I have questions, but I do understand this is all a work in progress. Have you noticed any changes in the resource reward percentages? I assume you still track every expo.

    I stopped bothering at about 3200 expeditions since the results were basically the same. And yes, the percentages were more or less the same only like 0.01 difference here and there, and that is pretty much margin of error.

    I can't speak about any universes bu x7. I only play in a single Universe(Quantum En). I have an account in Poland Quantum(also a x7 Uni) and chose the Collector to try out expeditions with it to see it's results at the time of the release of the update.

    Moons donated: 10

  • I got 16,35% nothings over 422 expeditions, 18,57% nothing over 140 expeditions, and 22,59% nothings over 270 expeditions.


    Granted those are small sample sizes, I think you might have gotten unlucky with your 27% nothings. It definitely seems to be closer to the 18% expected. It must be said though that my 22,59% sample is the latest set of data collection, and maybe the increased the number of nothings in one of the latest revisions.


    Do you send all of your expeditions in the same system Grimm? And do you take note if any returns with the "someone else has been here" messages? that supposedly should increase the chance of finding nothings.

  • we are running on close to 6k expo sample

    All results seem fine and are not that important as loseing your fleet is, and that is the one that differs for almoulst double

    I am makeing Silverwind's days

    And I am savage now!

  • I got 16,35% nothings over 422 expeditions, 18,57% nothing over 140 expeditions, and 22,59% nothings over 270 expeditions.


    Granted those are small sample sizes, I think you might have gotten unlucky with your 27% nothings. It definitely seems to be closer to the 18% expected. It must be said though that my 22,59% sample is the latest set of data collection, and maybe the increased the number of nothings in one of the latest revisions.


    Do you send all of your expeditions in the same system Grimm? And do you take note if any returns with the "someone else has been here" messages? that supposedly should increase the chance of finding nothings.

    Same system.

    And yes, keep doing expos... Because I in the first what? 200? I think it was close to 300 actually expeditions when doing the test with 4200 cargos I had like 12% nothings... So yeah, I was just being lucky.

    I remember back in Bermuda my values were also hovering 25% although in much fewer expos.

    And as you posted yourself... You are increasing your "nothing" finds the more expos you do. Wait until the 2000-3000 mark. And by the way, what ship type or number you send DOES NOT change the chances of you finding anything, ONLY THE AMOUNT... IF YOU FIND them in the first place. :)

    And no, I don't remember those messages at all.

    Moons donated: 10

  • No, that's not what I wrote, I wrote that my newest expeditions are sitting at a higher %.


    I am sitting at 18,75% (156/832 total expeditions)


    Granted it's still a small sample size, your 27% seems really unlucky.

  • No, that's not what I wrote, I wrote that my newest expeditions are sitting at a higher %.


    I am sitting at 18,75% (156/832 total expeditions)


    Granted it's still a small sample size, your 27% seems really unlucky.

    Ah... Ok. Or maybe you are just lucky?

    :D

    I'll post more results after I change my excel file a bit more to be even better and to add even more info.

    Moons donated: 10

  • No, that's not what I wrote, I wrote that my newest expeditions are sitting at a higher %.


    I am sitting at 18,75% (156/832 total expeditions)


    Granted it's still a small sample size, your 27% seems really unlucky.

    do you change system?

    -- You've met a terrible fate haven't you

  • No, but I have my expedition spread so I do 1 expo in each system and always have the "you are alone" message

  • Grimm your data is what led me to look deeper. An alliance mate of mine found 18 mil crystal in a 5x uni with top between 5 and 25 mil, and the max is only supposed to be 14 or so.

    You have already proven that you dont need to apply an eco speed formula to the expo points required to get the maximum rewards, right? You've done 1000s now.

    So I have questions, but I do understand this is all a work in progress. Have you noticed any changes in the resource reward percentages? I assume you still track every expo.

    It is time to shed some light onto all this, since it seems I am the only one willing to share the full details of everything we know combined into what is REALLY going on under the hood.


    Okay, Mensa uni, rank 1 has less than 5kk points.


    Crystal 12.420.000 have been captured. (last night)

    Now let's apply all I think we know so far to explain the result.


    Maximum expedition points: 9.000 according to Bontchev and old data.

    Maximum resource finds according to old data: 450.000-900.000 Crystal on a Large find.

    New expedition formula we were presented with: 1.5 discoverer * 5 economy speed * 2 pathfinder * base loot


    The old expedition way to determine how much loot you got, hmm, lets shorten it for the max resource find (mineral belts OR giant alien space ship expedition texts). A random number is chosen between 51 and 100, then multiplied by 2. This number is then multiplied by the expedition points you have sent (usually maximum, so 9.000). So lets use this to determine maximum possible result: roll 100, multiply by 2, multiply with 9000 expedition points. Results in 1.800.000. Since we are looking for crystal, divide by 2 (and for deut, divide by 3). Result is 900.000. Exactly as Bontchev calculates.


    Now, lets combine that with the new expedition formula we were given, with each number on its own:


    1.5 discoverer * 5 economy speed * 2 pathfinder * ((random 51,100) * 2 * 9000 expedition points)


    In order to get 12.420.000 crystal, we can determine which random number got rolled. If we get between 51 and 100, it is probably still all correct.


    Lets begin by reversing the new expo formula additions:

    12.420.000 (total find) / 1.5 (discoverer bonus) / 5 (economy speed) / 2 (pathfinder) = 828.000 -> this correctly falls just under the maximum 900.000 possible find.


    Now lets break it down with the old formula to get the random number:

    828.000 (base find) * 2 (because to get 828k we divided the initial 1.656k result!) / 9000 (expedition points) / 2 (multiplier of the random number) = 92 -> and this number perfectly falls between 51 and 100 as expected.


    The minimum possible result I could have gotten was half of the max for the mineral belts / giant alien spaceship event, so 450.000 base. This would have meant I rolled 51. Maximum would have been 900.000 base, so I would have rolled 100. You can from this calculate the minimum and maximum finds for mineral belts / gaint alien spaceship events:

    Minimum: 450.000 * 1.5 * 5 * 2 = 6.750.000

    Maximum: minimum * 2 = 13.500.000


    Gratuit calculator which shows us potential maximum results for V7.1 shows "Resource find (max): 27.000.000 (15)". As the developer said himself, the (15) means that is the multiplier of base result (so you can obtain a maximum of 15 times more than you would in V6). 27.000.000 is then divided by 2 to determine maximum crystal loot, or 13.500.000.



    Conclusions:


    Gratuit calculator is CORRECT.

    Expedition points are UNCHANGED to what they were before.

    Base loot is UNCHANGED from what it was before.

    Loot calculation formula they gave us is CORRECT.

    Base loot calculation mechanics are UNCHANGED from what they were before.

    Being a Discoverer and sending enough cargos to haul the maximum loot (in this case 27kk metal absolute possible maximum) is OVERSHOOTING EXPEDITION POINTS by a lot.

    The chance to hit MAXIMUM find is REALLY LOW.

    The chance to hit MINIMUM find is comparably about 20 times higher (I didn't calculate this, it is a wild estimation).


    To elaborate further on how big of a chance you have to hit the absolute maximum loot: the % chance of hitting resources in expeditions is NOT KNOWN. It is at best guesstimated by players to be somewhere around 30%. After hitting the 30% chance to find res, you roll a number between 0 and 2 (0,1,2 each represents one resource type), which means there is a 33.33% chance you will hit your desired resource. Next the loot amount is calculated, a number is rolled between 0 and 99, if you hit 99, you hit the Large find (mineral belts/alien spaceship), if you hit 90 to 98 (including the two numbers), you get Medium find, and for 0 to 89 (including the two numbers) you get a Small find. This means you have a 1% chance of Large (corresponds to 900k-1.8kk base loot), 9% chance of Medium (corresponds to 450k-900k base loot), and 90% chance of Small (corresponds to 90k-450k base loot). If your desired resource is crystal, divide the loot amount by 2, if it is deut, divide by 3. Now a number is rolled to determine the final amount of base loot you get, if you rolled Small, it rolls a number between 5 and 25, Medium a number between 26 and 50, Large a number between 51 and 100. This number is then multiplied by 2, then multiplied by the number of Expedition Points you sent (and Maximum Expedition Points is determined by the score of #1 player as it was before). See how many rolls you have to hit to get 13.500.000 crystal? It is very UNLIKELY, but it CAN happen.


    Note: This also means the absolute minimum find would be 90.000 * 1.5 * 5 * 2 = 1.350.000 metal, or 675.000 crystal, or 450.000 deuterium (as a Discoverer, of course!).


    Here is the smallest crystal find I've had so far: Crystal 675.000 have been captured.


    I hope someone finds this a good read, as it took me a bit to write and check everything. I've done thousands of expeditions myself since they introduced the mechanic, and I am pretty certain my whole breakdown is 100% correct. You can use my method above for ANY resource find you get, even if you send a weird number like 20 LC and get any resource, you can insert it in the calculation above and get a 100% breakdown on which numbers got rolled.

  • Outstanding job, thank you very very much. Answered many of my questions. I thought this was how it was, and I made a mistake calculating the "reward" on one expo I thought was outside these parameters, but it wasnt. You cleared it up.

    Do you have any idea how the whole depletion thing works? If you are seeing messages saying you are NOT the first one there, what happens to the odds?

    Is there ANY reason to send a probe other than to see if you are the first ones there or not?

    Brute force, if it's not working, you aren't using enough.

  • Quote

    It is at best guesstimated by players to be somewhere around 30%. After hitting the 30% chance to find res, you roll a number between 0 and 2 (0,1,2 each represents one resource type), which means there is a 33.33% chance you will hit your desired resource.

    except this being untrue, you did a good job of repeating what is already in the wiki

  • Quote

    It is at best guesstimated by players to be somewhere around 30%. After hitting the 30% chance to find res, you roll a number between 0 and 2 (0,1,2 each represents one resource type), which means there is a 33.33% chance you will hit your desired resource.

    except this being untrue, you did a good job of repeating what is already in the wiki

    Why is that untrue?

    My questions were about the wiki's accuracy now, and how expo points are factored and where they matter, and he answered them pretty well I think.

    Brute force, if it's not working, you aren't using enough.

  • Quote

    It is at best guesstimated by players to be somewhere around 30%. After hitting the 30% chance to find res, you roll a number between 0 and 2 (0,1,2 each represents one resource type), which means there is a 33.33% chance you will hit your desired resource.

    except this being untrue, you did a good job of repeating what is already in the wiki

    It would be beautiful to actually get some proper input from people. On the contrary, we get some people like you responding with basically absolutely nothing at all, at best a few vague lines with no concrete information within them. Prove me wrong, then we can maybe discuss why that is, and I can change my opinion and possibly even apologize for spreading false information.

  • I had about ~30% resource findings, of which ~15% were metal, ~10% were crystal and ~5% were Deuterium. This is also quite similar to their trade rates: 3:2:1 ... So it's quite safe to assume that the old Expedition probability is no longer applicable. It would be way too much of a coincidence for me, after 3000 expos, to sit at exactly 15:10:5 percentages for each resource. It seems way too convinient. So I'll judge based on these results that I got.
    This translates into... 50% metal, 33,3% crystal and 16,6% deuterium. And as we can see above Nixian also got pretty similar results, so I should probably stand corrected in the probability of finding resources. And by default, since the finding of resources got slightly smaller, the Nothing findings will of course increase.

    But I will keep posting my results. Surely after 10.000 Expeditions I should have an even more accurate result.

    PS: Was that expedition guide made by an actual GF employe or just some player that decided to make a guide after he himself started experimenting in expos like how we are doing right now?

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