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Hello Ogamers!
I have some questions regarding some expedition data that I found. Specifically, is the following information up to date:
Display MoreWhat we need to put to maximize the expedition for find ships, resources? It’s depending of the top 1.
On the universes that the top 1 has least than 100k of points, the value maximum of your fleet of expedition is limited to 2.500 expedition points. You
can find maximum 500.000 metal, 250.000 crystal or 166.667 deuterium during an expedition.
On the universes that the top 1 has least than 1M of points, the value maximum of your fleet of expedition is limited to 6.000 expedition points. You can find maximum 1.200.000 metal, 600.000 crystal or 400.000 deuterium during an expedition.
On the universes that the top 1 has least than 5M of points, the value maximum of your fleet of expedition is limited to 9.000 expedition points. You can find maximum 1.800.000 metal, 900.000 crystal or 600.000 deuterium during an expedition.
On the universes that the top 1 has least than 25M of points, the value maximum of your fleet of expedition is limited to 12.000 expedition points. You can find maximum 2.400.000 metal, 1.200.000 crystal or 800.000 deuterium during an expedition.
On the universes that the top 1 has least than 50M of points, the value maximum of your fleet of expedition is limited to 15.000 expedition points. You can find maximum 3.000.000 metal, 1.500.000 crystal or 1.000.000 deuterium during an expedition.
On the universes that the top 1 has least than 75M of points, the value maximum of your fleet of expedition is limited to 18.000 expedition points. You can find maximum 3.600.000 metal, 1.800.000 crystal or 1.200.000 deuterium during an expedition.
On the universes that the top 1 has least than 100M of points, the value maximum of your fleet of expedition is limited to 21.000 expedition points. You can find maximum 4.200.000 metal, 2.100.000 crystal or 1.400.000 deuterium during an expedition.
On the universes that the top 1 has more than 100M of points, the value maximum of your fleet of expedition is limited to 25.000 expedition points. You can find maximum 5.000.000 metal, 2.500.000 crystal or 1.666.666 deuterium during an expedition.
The number of expedition points is: (Structural Integrity* 5) / 1.000
So, here the number of expedition points:
Light Fighter: 20
Heavy Fighter: 50
Cruiser: 135
Battleship: 300
Battlecruiser: 350
Bomber: 375
Destroyer: 550
Small Cargo: 20
Large Cargo: 60
Espionage Probe: 5
Display MorePART I
A) GENERAL STATS
On expedition, one can: collect resources, bring back ships, come home empty-handed (usually on time, sometimes early, sometimes late), get an item, get darkmatter, get a merchant, fight pirates, fight aliens, lose one's fleet in a black hole.
The probabilities of these events have evolved over the versions and are not yet well known for v7. I gathered above 70000 expeditions from various sources, knowing in advance that the results would be biased for numerous reasons. Anyway, here are the results:
It seemed to me (I'm possibly be wrong) that the "Nothing" percentage was a little high, so I decided to vary it and see what would then happen to the probabilities :
"Bullshit, man, that's not how you make stats!". I'm aware of that and we will have to start from scratch to get reliable results, the good news being, a friend of mine has crafted his own website. He retains a high level of details with very high reliability. I'll be using his results for further investigation.
B ) RESOURCES
When one get resources, it is a small find (89%), a large find (10%) or a very large find (1%).
One find metal, crystal or deut respectively in 50%, 33.33% and 16.67% of cases.
Use the benneb simulator to find the “metal ceiling”, namely the maximum amount of metal that can be brought back: http://mviv.hebergratuit.net/expe71_prod.htm?i=1. From there :
- a small metal find equiprobably corresponds to 5%, 6%, ..., or 25% of the metal ceiling;
- a large find, equiprobably, to 26%, ..., 50% of the ceiling (maybe starting at 25%);
- a very large find, equiprobably, to 51%, ..., 100% of the ceiling (maybe starting at 50%).
The same principles apply for crystal and deut:
- crystal ceiling = metal ceiling / 2;
- deut ceiling = metal ceiling / 3.
C) SHIPS
The 89/10/1 ratio is applied in the same way as for the "resources" event.
We have ships ceiling = crystal ceiling, the latter corresponding to the max amount of structure points that can be brought back. 1 metal = 1 crystal, a cruiser accounts for 20000 + 7000 + 0 = 27000 points.
As for resources:
- a small find equiprobably corresponds to 5%, 6%, ..., or 25% of the ceiling;
- a large find, equiprobably, to 26%, ..., 50% of the ceiling (maybe starting at 25%);
- a very large find, equiprobably, to 51%, ..., 100% of the ceiling (maybe starting at 50%).
Display MoreIt is time to shed some light onto all this, since it seems I am the only one willing to share the full details of everything we know combined into what is REALLY going on under the hood.
Okay, Mensa uni, rank 1 has less than 5kk points.
Crystal 12.420.000 have been captured. (last night)
Now let's apply all I think we know so far to explain the result.
Maximum expedition points: 9.000 according to Bontchev and old data.
Maximum resource finds according to old data: 450.000-900.000 Crystal on a Large find.
New expedition formula we were presented with: 1.5 discoverer * 5 economy speed * 2 pathfinder * base loot
The old expedition way to determine how much loot you got, hmm, lets shorten it for the max resource find (mineral belts OR giant alien space ship expedition texts). A random number is chosen between 51 and 100, then multiplied by 2. This number is then multiplied by the expedition points you have sent (usually maximum, so 9.000). So lets use this to determine maximum possible result: roll 100, multiply by 2, multiply with 9000 expedition points. Results in 1.800.000. Since we are looking for crystal, divide by 2 (and for deut, divide by 3). Result is 900.000. Exactly as Bontchev calculates.
Now, lets combine that with the new expedition formula we were given, with each number on its own:
1.5 discoverer * 5 economy speed * 2 pathfinder * ((random 51,100) * 2 * 9000 expedition points)
In order to get 12.420.000 crystal, we can determine which random number got rolled. If we get between 51 and 100, it is probably still all correct.
Lets begin by reversing the new expo formula additions:
12.420.000 (total find) / 1.5 (discoverer bonus) / 5 (economy speed) / 2 (pathfinder) = 828.000 -> this correctly falls just under the maximum 900.000 possible find.
Now lets break it down with the old formula to get the random number:
828.000 (base find) * 2 (because to get 828k we divided the initial 1.656k result!) / 9000 (expedition points) / 2 (multiplier of the random number) = 92 -> and this number perfectly falls between 51 and 100 as expected.
The minimum possible result I could have gotten was half of the max for the mineral belts / giant alien spaceship event, so 450.000 base. This would have meant I rolled 51. Maximum would have been 900.000 base, so I would have rolled 100. You can from this calculate the minimum and maximum finds for mineral belts / gaint alien spaceship events:
Minimum: 450.000 * 1.5 * 5 * 2 = 6.750.000
Maximum: minimum * 2 = 13.500.000
Gratuit calculator which shows us potential maximum results for V7.1 shows "Resource find (max): 27.000.000 (15)". As the developer said himself, the (15) means that is the multiplier of base result (so you can obtain a maximum of 15 times more than you would in V6). 27.000.000 is then divided by 2 to determine maximum crystal loot, or 13.500.000.
What is the current expedition meta?
I remember a time where you hunted to crash pirates and then recycle the DF but I believe the DF got capped so that probably no longer works. Having this in mind it is probably just about getting enough ships to hit the maximum resources and either going full civil ships if you do not want to play as a fleeter or adding a Reaper if you want the ships?
Would this be right?
Many thanks!
